Explore World4, a system dynamics model for human population.

Projections of future global human population are traditionally made using birth/death trend extrapolations, but these methods ignore limits. Expressing humanity as a K-selected species whose numbers are limited by the global carrying capacity produces a different outlook. Population data for the second millennium up to the year 1960 was fit to a hyper-exponential growth equation, where the rate constant for growth itself grows exponentially due an intrinsic growth of life-saving technology. The discrepancies between the projected growth and the actual population data since 1960 are accounted for by a decrease in the global carrying capacity due to ecosystem degradation. A system dynamics model that best fits recent population numbers reveals that the global biocapacity may already have been reduced to one-half of its historical value and global carrying capacity may be at its 1965 level and falling. Simulations suggest that population may soon peak or may have already peaked. Numbers for the current 2020 global census were not available for this study.

Click on the "Full Screen Insight" to open within InsightMaker. Run simulations. View parameters and equations. Clone Insight to to make your own copy. Make changes. Explore the "what-if" variables.

Back to main